Forecast of rainfall futures

June: Rainfall Futures Forecast | News and Features

A snapshot of clouds simulated by a kilometer-scale global climate model.Credits: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

Despite decades of research, it is unclear what the rainfall will be in the coming years, and severe floods and long-term droughts are already unexpected.

today, Natural climate changeExperts argue that the answer exists, but a huge joint international investment in resources, expertise and infrastructure (estimated $ 250 million per year) is urgent to develop a much more sophisticated climate model. Needed for.

Dame Julia Slingo, lead author of the Cabot Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Bristol, said: “Several basic physics that we now know are essential to reliable predictions as the basis for which climate models have been built over the last three decades. I’m missing out on it. “

“The solution is within our reach. We need to make a leap forward from the current 100-kilometer-scale global climate model to a one-kilometer-scale model. At these scales, the complex physics of rainwater systems. For the first time, scholarship is properly expressed, with consequences that go far beyond the future of our waters and span many aspects of climate change. “

The international team presents examples of the creation and resources of a coalition group of major modeling centers linked to dedicated pioneering exascale computing and data equipment. This sophisticated climate forecasting system serves all countries and provides solid evidence across all aspects of climate change.

Professor Stephen Belcher, co-author and chief scientist at the UK Met Office, said: International efforts. “

Changes in rainfall seasonality and natural variability, as well as floods and droughts, can have serious impacts on many living systems and threaten investment in food security, water security, health and infrastructure. I have. But how much we know about the future of our water has been embodied in a recent IPCC assessment report. This showed considerable uncertainty in changes in rainfall, especially on a regional and rural scale.

Professor Thomas Stocker, co-author and former chair of the IPCC Assessment Report Working Group, said: Current climate models cannot provide this, but global investment and scientific partnerships in kilometer-scale global modeling make this possible. “

Co-author Paul Bates, a professor of hydrology at the University of Bristol, adds: Lost lives, and these costs, will only rise as climate change continues to bite. ”

Improved prediction of extreme weather

For more information:
Slingo, J. et al. Ambitious partnerships needed for reliable climate forecasting, Natural climate change (2022). DOI: 10.1038 / s41558-022-01384-8.

Provided by University of Bristol

Quote: Rainfall Futures Forecast (June 16, 2022) was taken from on June 16, 2022.

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